Will Forest really get relegated?

Due to Forest’s recent horrific run of results, I’ve deemed it necessary to see whether people’s concerns about relegation have any substance. After a 2-1 defeat at Reading, Forest are currently 9 points off the relegation places with six games remaining.

As It Stands Table:

Forest are currently in 17^th position in the Championship, 9 points above the relegation zone.

Forest’s Run-In:

Current Form: WLDLLL

Remaining Fixtures:

Brighton (H)

Rotherham (A)

Blackburn (H)

Fulham (A)

Wolves (H)

MK Dons (A)

It is easy to see why Forest fans are concerned about relegation due to recent poor results and the remaining fixtures. The way Forest are playing at the moment it is difficult to see where they will collect any more points to secure their safety. They realistically need to get to the 50 point mark to 

make sure they are most definitely safe.

Brighton at the City Ground on Monday night, following several dire home performances, looks a very tough ask especially as they are still very much in the fight for automatic promotion. The likes of Anthony Knockaert and Tomer Hemed have been in superb form lately and will be looking forward to the prospect of facing Forest’s makeshift defence. Forest also face other teams who are battling the drop including Rotherham (A), Fulham (A) and MK Dons (A). These will be very difficult fixtures against three teams who are all capable of picking up results on their day. Forest will have to be up for a scrap to get any points off these teams, which they have not been up to in recent weeks. The two fixtures I believe Forest will have the best chance of getting something out of are Blackburn (H) and Wolves (H), two fixtures against teams who have little to play for. Both are safe and have no chance of promotion and neither are particularly fantastic teams. Forest should collect enough points in these fixtures to make sure that the last day of the season trip to MK Dons is a relaxing one.

MK Dons’s Run-In:

Current Form: WDDLLL

Remaining Fixtures:

Rotherham (H)

Preston (A)

Sheffield Wednesday (A)

Brentford (H)

Ipswich (A)

Forest (H)

Last night, MK Dons missed a fantastic opportunity to put pressure on those above them as they threw away a 1-0 defeat to lose 2-1 to Wolves at home. A win, would have put them just 6 points behind Forest and 3 points off safety. However, they are still capable of picking up results and will still believe that they can beat the drop.

MK Dons and Wolves players battle during their Championship encounter last night.

They mathematically need to win 3 and draw 1 to overtake Forest, due to Forest’s superior goal difference. This is also including the fact that Forest would have to lose every single one of their remaining fixtures. I believe the next two fixtures against Rotherham (H) and Preston (A) will decide their fate, with the Rotherham fixture of Saturday being particularly crucial. If Rotherham beat them on Saturday, I can’t see the Dons avoiding the drop. Fixtures against Sheffield Wednesday (A), Brentford (H) and Ipswich (A) are all also very difficult fixtures even if they do manage to pull off wins against both Rotherham and Preston. I believe if Dons do have a chance of surviving, it will go down to the final fixture against Forest. By then Forest themselves will hopefully already be safe as Dons would have to be within 2 points of them for Forest to have a chance of being relegated. By looking at both their current form and remaining fixtures, I find it difficult to see MK Dons catching Forest before the end of the season even if Forest lose every match.

Charlton’s Run-In:

Current Form: WDWLWD

Remaining Fixtures:

QPR (A)

Derby (H)

Bolton (A)

Brighton (H)

Leeds (A)

Burnley (H)

Charlton have put together a decent run of results in recent weeks, leading Forest fans to think they are the team to watch rather than MK Dons. Last night they got a very good point in a 0-0 draw at play-off chasing Ipswich which leaves them 7 points off safety.

Charlton players and supporters celebrate their late victory against Birmingham City at the weekend.

Charlton similarly to both Forest and MK Dons appear to have a very tricky run-in. They first face a London derby on Saturday as they travel to Loftus Road to face QPR, which will be seen as a winnable game. They then face Derby at home who have recently struggled away from home for results and this again could be an opportunity for Charlton to close the gap further. They then face Bolton (H) which if they have won the previous two, will be a must win if they are to avoid the drop. Their last 3 fixtures of the season are very difficult as they face Brighton (H), Leeds (A) and Burnley (H). Brighton and Burnley are both fighting for automatic promotion and Elland Road is never an easy place to go to. Charlton’s run-in makes it unlikely they will be able to catch Forest as they are currently 10 points behind. Even 3 wins and 1 draw wouldn’t be enough as Forest have a far superior goal difference. This means that Charlton would need to get results in those last 3 fixtures even if they win the other 3 in order to catch Forest. That is also including the fact that Forest would again have to lose every single game. This makes it seem unlikely to me that Charlton will be able to catch Forest despite their recent upturn in form.