A Statement of Intent?

There has been a significant amount of speculation on social media over the last few days suggesting that Nottingham Forest are close to signing Benfica duo João Carvalho and Diogo Gonçalves for €15 million and on a season-long loan respectively. This has been met by a mixed response by supporters, with some excited and some a little more cautious and aware of what has gone before.

A lack of spending in recent years

One of the main reasons that this speculation has caused such a reaction on social media is due to the lack of money that has been spent by Forest on the playing staff in recent years. The last time the Reds invested 'serious' money into the squad was ahead of the 2014/15 season when the likes of Britt Assombalonga and Michail Antonio arrived at The City Ground. Since then, due to a lengthy transfer embargo and other reasons, supporters have largely only had free transfers and loans to get excited about.

Nottingham Forest transfer history expenditure by year:

2011/12: 600k
2012/13: £3m
2013/14: £5.05m
2014/15: £10m
2015/16: £0
2016/17: £1m
2017/18: £1.5m
2018/19: ? #nffc

— In From The Trent (@infromthetrent) June 3, 2018

If Forest are able to get both deals over the line, it would certainly raise expectation ahead of next season around the club, mainly due to the fees involved. However, this is arguably a positive as for far too long supporters have had to settle for a "happy for a mid-table finish" season. You get the sense that both Evangelos Marinakis and Aitor Karanka are two individuals that demand success and are not prepared to wait around in order to get it. The club has lacked this sense of direction and purpose in recent years. 

Are they worth the money? 

The question that majority of supporters will be asking is - are they worth the money? No matter who you are in the Championship, spending €15 million on one player is a huge investment. The statistics for both players do not really do much to lessen any concerns. Carvalho has only made eight first team appearances for the first team whilst Gonçalves has featured 11 times. However, both have made a positive impression and have been branded as potential stars for the future.

João Carvalho

It is unlikely that Karanka would be prepared to spend that much money on a player that he was not certain was capable of performing in the Championship next season. One of the key areas that Forest did need to strengthen this summer was in the final third and to bring two forwards to the club with this sort of pedigree can only be a good sign.

The new Wolverhampton Wanderers?

This approach of targeting young Portuguese players is very similar to the approach that Wolverhampton Wanderers took last season as they went on to comfortably win the league title. Wolves signed 20-year-old Rúben Neves for a fee of around £15.8 million from FC Porto with Diogo Jota also arriving on a season-long loan from Atlético Madrid. Both of these players made a huge impact at Molineux and if Carvalho and Gonçalves are able to make half the impact at Forest, they will be two superb acquisitions.

Jorge Mendes

The comparisons between Forest and Wolves have mainly been made due to the fact that both players have Jorge Mendes as their agent. The 52-year-old is one of the most influential football agents in the world, with the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, David de Gea, James Rodríguez and José Mourinho on his books. He has been working closely with Wolves since they were taken over by Fosun International, playing a key role in the club's recruitment. He does not have such a significant influence at Forest but he is certainly a good contact to have in regards to attracting top talent to the club.

Will it work out?

Of course, Wolves were fortunate that they were able to take advantage of their spending at the first attempt. It is not always that easy. Aston Villa have invested huge amounts of money into the squad since their relegation from the Premier League. However, following their play-off final defeat to Fulham, they are now struggling financially and look set to sell many of their key players in order to avoid falling foul to Financial Fair Play regulations. They are now arguably in a worse position than they were when they were originally relegated.

Forest supporters will be hoping that if the club do spend big this summer, there is a plan behind it. There has been too much turmoil off the pitch in recent years under previous owner Fawaz Al-Hasawi, and the club is due some success. It is possible that Karanka has a sizeable budget available to him this summer due to the lack of money which has been spent in recent years and also because the likes of Oliver Burke and Britt Assombalonga have been sold on for significant fees. However, Karanka will be acutely aware that by spending money, there will be an expectation for him to have Forest challenging for promotion to the top flight next season.

Whatever happens in the next few weeks, it promises to be an exciting campaign.